Tropical Depression Nine is still forecast to become a tropical storm with sustained winds of 40-50 mph and gusts to 60-70 mph before landfall. The strongest winds will be most likely felt over the coastal waters, barrier islands, and immediate coastal areas. This system is expected to weaken as it tracks westward across South Texas toward the Rio Grande on Tuesday.
Outer rain bands containing tropical storm force wind gusts are still expected approach the coast tonight and move inland early Tuesday morning. Expect very wet and stormy conditions during the morning commute on Tuesday with scattered flash floods possible. A couple of tornadoes could occur within the rain bands from early Tuesday morning into the afternoon hours.
Along area beaches, storm surge is expected to produce Moderate coastal flooding on Tuesday with the potential for water to reach the dunes and beach access roads. There is also a high risk for rip currents as large swells reach the Texas coast.
South Texas Impacts:
Winds: Sustained winds of 40-50 MPH with gusts up to 60-70 MPH.
Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding: Storm surge of 1-3 feet of beach inundation is expected on Tuesday.
Rainfall: 3-5 inches of rain is expected with isolated amounts to 7 inches possible, overnight through Tuesday afternoon.
Tornadoes: A couple of tornadoes are possible across south Texas
Forecaster Considerations Overall forecast reasoning has remained unchanged. There is still some uncertainty on exactly where the center will cross the coast, but overall, the hazards remain unchanged. The heaviest rains fall on the right side of the storm with respect to its forward motion. Given the dry soil conditions, the soil can absorb a lot of water and isolated to scattered flash flooding will be most likely in urban areas or typical low spots.